ARX
Accelerant Holdings
Radar Caídas · 28/100 · Under review
28/1001-year price history
Source: Yahoo FinanceThe chart uses daily closes adjusted by the available provider. There may be delays, gaps or differences versus the official source.
Sources
Links you can open and check yourself, most reliable first. Internal data-provider fetches are not listed here.
Formulario 4: compraventa de acciones por un directivo
Formulario 144: aviso de venta de acciones de un directivo
Accelerant Announces Date of Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call
Wall Street Analysts Think Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Could Surge 39.43%: Read This Before Placing a Bet
Accelerant Advances Fee-Based Model With WoodStar Partnership
Company
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments.
- Sector Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
- Website https://www.accelerant.ai
What happened and why it was detected
What happened
The stock fell 23.8%. There is a recent company event that could be related to the drop (Múltiples presentaciones públicas de ventas de acciones por parte de directivos (Form 4 y Form 144) entre el 24 y el 29 de julio de 2026, más cobertura en medios sobre una venta de insider por 1,1M USD (12-jul-2026). Estas presentaciones coincidieron con una caída de -23,81% en 48 horas (27-30 jul 2026). dated 13 August 2026), but we could not confirm it happened before the drop began.
Why we found it interesting
- Likely: there is recent news consistent with the drop. There is a company event in the last 48 hours, but we could not place it before the drop began precisely enough to confirm it. The sources reviewed are at the bottom of this page.
- We could not measure the overshoot, because there is no public figure for this catalyst's real damage.
- Out of our 10 checks, 4 come out clearly in favour.
- Final score: 28 out of 100.
What could go wrong
- Sales reported on Form 144 and Form 4 may continue and could be larger than currently known, intensifying downward pressure on prices.
- If the company announces a need for capital or a stock offering, the dilution would exacerbate the decline.
- The lack of a clear response from management within 48 hours could prolong the uncertainty and the penalty.
What would make us drop it
- New filings showing insider sales totaling more than 5% of the free float would invalidate the overreaction theory.
- An announcement of a capital increase or a clear need for liquidity on the part of the company.
- The company revises its annual forecasts downward (the forecasts it publishes) or reports quarterly results that show persistent operational deterioration.
What the confidence percentage means
This 60% is the confidence the model states about its own analysis after reviewing the sources.
Verified data: 7 of 10 checks have real data.
Detection analysis
This structured block did not exist yet for this historical page.
Where the score comes from
The score is computed by Python code from objective data, not by the AI model, and it does not change after the qualitative research.
Fixable problem
11.2 / 25
How much of the problem behind the drop looks fixable
Company strength
10.0 / 20
Revenue, margins, cash and debt before the drop
Overreaction size
0.0 / 15
How much it fell beyond the estimated real damage
Company response
0.0 / 15
Whether management responded publicly after the drop
Chart support
0.0 / 10
Whether the price holds above its 50-day average
Institutional money
0.0 / 10
Large-fund buying: no reliably up-to-date source exists
Bonus points
+7.0
Insider buying, capitulation volume, analysts keeping their rating
Penalty
-0.0
Deteriorating sector and negative signals detected
out of 100
28.2
Indicators
Calculated 2026-07-30T20:30:02.038653Values used by this framework's Python scoring engine at detection time. Only indicators the data source could confirm are shown.
Precio
Variación en 1 día
-9.68%
Variación en 5 días
-18.66%
Variación en 1 mes
-4.44%
Variación en 3 meses
-14.89%
Acciones negociadas ese día
4,738,460
Volumen medio de 10 días
2,283,270
Sirve para comparar: si el volumen del día lo dispara, algo ha pasado
Tamaño
Valor en bolsa
2.44 B$
Lo que cuesta comprar todas las acciones de la empresa
Valor de la empresa entera
1.20 B$
Valor en bolsa más la deuda y menos la caja: lo que costaria comprarla y saldar deudas
Valoración
Veces beneficio esperado
12.13x
Lo mismo, pero con el beneficio que los analistas esperan el año que viene
Veces beneficio operativo (EV/EBITDA)
14.51x
Cuántas veces el beneficio operativo anual paga el mercado por la empresa entera
Veces caja libre (EV/FCF)
-0.59x
Lo mismo, pero contra el dinero que la empresa genera de verdad
Negocio
Crecimiento de ingresos
59.7%
Margen bruto
64.6%
De cada 100 dolares vendidos, lo que queda tras el coste directo del producto
Margen operativo
-2.2%
Lo que queda de cada 100 dolares vendidos tras todos los gastos del negocio
Caja libre generada (12 meses)
-2.04 B$
Dinero que sobra tras pagar gastos e inversiones. En negativo, la empresa quema caja
Cuánto beneficio operativo se convierte en caja
-24.74x
Cerca de 1 significa que el beneficio contable acaba siendo dinero real
Deuda
Caja disponible
1.66 B$
Deuda total
120.70 M$
Caja neta
1.53 B$
Caja menos deuda. En positivo, la empresa tiene más dinero que deudas
Años de beneficio operativo para pagar la deuda
-18.58x
Por encima de 3 suele considerarse una deuda exigente
Deuda sobre fondos propios
16.8%
Cuánta deuda usa por cada 100 dolares de capital de los accionistas
Accionistas
Acciones emitidas
112,799,194
Acciones que cotizan libremente
50,666,351
Cuanto menor sea, más bruscos suelen ser los movimientos de precio
Parte en manos de directivos
50.9%
Si los que dirigen la empresa tienen mucho invertido, se juegan lo mismo que tu
Apuestas bajistas sobre el free float
12.0%
Porcentaje de acciones prestadas para apostar a la baja
Why some numbers are coloured and others stay grey
Colour repeats what the sign already says, at three intensities depending on how far the value is from zero. It is never the only signal.
- light
- medium
- strong
- light
- medium
- strong
- Price change: light up to 2%, medium up to 10%, strong above that.
- Margins and growth: light up to 10%, medium up to 35%, strong above that.
Everything whose sign is not good or bad on its own stays grey: valuation (a low P/E can be a bargain or a trap, and almost every company here has just fallen), debt, size, insider ownership and short interest. Those are shown as-is, without the site taking a view.
Analysis of the drop
The drop in the price appears to be an overreaction to public sales by executives in recent days; the known amount of those sales is very small relative to the market capitalization, so the direct economic impact is limited.
Catalyst
Multiple public filings of stock sales by executives (Form 4 and Form 144) between July 24 and 29, 2026, plus media coverage of an insider sale worth 1.1M USD (July 12, 2026). These filings coincided with a -23.81% decline over 48 hours (July 27–30, 2026). | Next month
Risks
- Sales reported on Form 144 and Form 4 may continue and could be larger than currently known, intensifying downward pressure on prices.
- If the company announces a need for capital or a stock offering, the dilution would exacerbate the decline.
- The lack of a clear response from management within 48 hours could prolong the uncertainty and the penalty.
What would invalidate this analysis
- New filings showing insider sales totaling more than 5% of the free float would invalidate the overreaction theory.
- An announcement of a capital increase or a clear need for liquidity on the part of the company.
- The company revises its annual forecasts downward (the forecasts it publishes) or reports quarterly results that show persistent operational deterioration.
Development spotted after the drop
Strength Seen in Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Can Its 6.1% Jump Turn into More Strength? · 3 August 2026
We don't judge whether it's good or bad news: compare it against the real return since detection in the table below.
Tracking
Tracking ended 30 days after detection (Radar Caídas policy): the last recorded data point is the 1-month one, it is not updated further.
Horizon
Date
Price
Return
Source
Current
2026-09-06 12:00:07.851637
19.88
77.50%
yahoo
24h
2026-07-31 21:00:02.485262
11.88
6.07%
yahoo
48h
2026-08-02 14:00:02.070015
11.88
6.07%
yahoo
1 week
2026-08-06 21:00:02.286083
12.29
9.73%
yahoo
1 month
2026-08-29 21:00:05.040840
19.73
76.16%
yahoo