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KRYS

Krystal Biotech, Inc.

Radar Caídas · 54/100 · Ready to research

54/100

1-year price history

Source: Yahoo Finance
- Calculating change...

The chart uses daily closes adjusted by the available provider. There may be delays, gaps or differences versus the official source.

Sources

Links you can open and check yourself, most reliable first. Internal data-provider fetches are not listed here.

Formulario 8-K: hecho relevante comunicado a la SEC Formulario 10-Q: cuentas del trimestre Formulario 4: compraventa de acciones por un directivo Formulario 144: aviso de venta de acciones de un directivo earnings event

Company

Krystal Biotech, Inc., a commercial-stage biotechnology company, discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes genetic medicines to treat diseases with high unmet medical needs in the United States.

What happened and why it was detected

What happened

The stock fell 14.8%. There is a recent company event that could be related to the drop (Publicación de resultados del segundo trimestre de 2026 y presentaciones en SEC (8‑K y 10‑Q) el 3 de agosto de 2026; la prensa recoge titulares mixtos: beneficio por acción superior pero ingresos por debajo de algunas previsiones. dated 3 August 2026), but we could not confirm it happened before the drop began.

Why we found it interesting

  • Likely: there is recent news consistent with the drop. There is a company event in the last 48 hours, but we could not place it before the drop began precisely enough to confirm it. The sources reviewed are at the bottom of this page.
  • We could not measure the overshoot, because there is no public figure for this catalyst's real damage.
  • Out of our 10 checks, 4 come out clearly in favour.
  • Final score: 54 out of 100.

What could go wrong

  • The market may maintain the penalty if the company confirms that the decline in revenue is a sustained trend.
  • The stock has a high percentage of short positions relative to its float (19.47%), which increases volatility and the risk of sharp price movements.
  • A relatively high valuation based on various multiples (for example, a high enterprise-to-free-cash-flow ratio), which means that a correction due to growth revisions affects the price.
  • The 8-K and 10-Q filings released on the same day require careful reading; adverse information in those documents could exacerbate the decline.

What would make us drop it

  • In its upcoming quarterly report, the company announced a downward revision to its annual guidance, and the revised figure implies an expected revenue decline of more than 10% compared to the previous guidance.
  • In the coming quarter, reported revenue is expected to fall by more than 15% year-over-year, and management acknowledges a loss of commercial momentum in its main market.
  • The company announces a need for additional capital (through a stock offering or debt issuance) exceeding 10% of its current market value.

What the confidence percentage means

This 70% is the confidence the model states about its own analysis after reviewing the sources.

Verified data: 7 of 10 checks have real data.

Detection analysis

What the market is pricing in

The market appears to be pricing in the risk of a slowdown in revenue growth following the August 3, 2026, report. The reaction centers on headlines that combine reported earnings per share above consensus with signs of revenue falling short of some forecasts, which has triggered a price drop of nearly 15% in 48 hours.

Does the drop match the estimated impact?

! Partly justified

The ~14.8% drop over 48 hours coincides with headlines citing weaker revenue, which is cause for some concern. However, the objective data in the report show a solid balance sheet: net cash of 814.3 MUSD and positive free cash flow of 137.5 MUSD (reported figures), in addition to a majority of analysts with a buy recommendation (9 buy, 1 hold). In other words, while there are reasons to penalize the weak revenue, the company’s financial health limits the risk of immediate structural damage.

Overreaction gap

Stock drop
14.82%
Estimated economic impact
0.00%
Gap
14.82pp

The sources do not provide a clear figure quantifying the direct cost of the catalyst on the company’s value (e.g., a fine or one-time charge). Therefore, the quantifiable impact is considered undeterminable based on the data provided (0%), and the gap is the actual decline of 14.82 percentage points, which indicates a moderate overreaction according to the internal method.

Possible scenarios (no probability assigned)

Favourable scenario

Management clarifies during the call or in a statement that the decline in revenue was due to temporary timing factors and confirms or raises its operating forecasts for the rest of the year; analysts maintain or raise their estimates.

Neutral scenario

The company releases additional information explaining that the dip was a one-time occurrence (e.g., sales timing or accounting effects), maintains its cost structure, and demonstrates stable cash generation in subsequent reports.

Adverse scenario

Either the next quarterly report will confirm that the revenue slowdown is persistent, or the company will announce that it needs significant capital.

What would rule out this hypothesis

  • The company issues a formal statement revising its guidance downward, and the revised figure implies an expected decline in annual revenue of more than 10%.
  • In its upcoming quarterly report, reported revenue is down more than 15% year-over-year, and management cites a loss of commercial momentum in the key market.
  • The company announces that it needs external financing in an amount exceeding 10% of its current market capitalization.

Factors that could support a recovery

  1. Direct clarification from management during the earnings call regarding the causes of the dip in revenue

    Horizon: 0–7 days

  2. Filing of a 10-Q/8-K with details showing that the effect was due to timing or nonrecurring items

    Horizon: 0–14 days

  3. Analysts confirm that the estimates do not require a material reduction

    Horizon: 7–30 days

Comparable historical cases

No verifiable comparable cases were saved for this page.

Where the score comes from

The score is computed by Python code from objective data, not by the AI model, and it does not change after the qualitative research.

Raw score 54.5
Data coverage 82.5% Points not measurable today: 17.5 out of 100.
Coverage-adjusted score 66.1 The adjusted figure does not replace the real score or the ranking. It only visually corrects how much of the 100 points was actually measurable, so missing data is not confused with weak quality.
Fixable problem 12.5 / 25
How much of the problem behind the drop looks fixable
Company strength 20.0 / 20
Revenue, margins, cash and debt before the drop
Overreaction size 0.0 / 15
How much it fell beyond the estimated real damage
Company response 0.0 / 15
Whether management responded publicly after the drop
Chart support 5.0 / 10
Whether the price holds above its 50-day average
Institutional money 0.0 / 10
Large-fund buying: no reliably up-to-date source exists
Bonus points +17.0
Insider buying, capitulation volume, analysts keeping their rating
Penalty -0.0
Deteriorating sector and negative signals detected
out of 100 54.5

Indicators

Calculated 2026-08-03T20:30:01.862318

Values used by this framework's Python scoring engine at detection time. Only indicators the data source could confirm are shown.

Precio

Variación en 1 día -8.37%
Variación en 5 días -11.16%
Variación en 1 mes -16.66%
Variación en 3 meses +17.49%
Acciones negociadas ese día 1,171,170
Volumen medio de 10 días 836,990 Sirve para comparar: si el volumen del día lo dispara, algo ha pasado

Tamaño

Valor en bolsa 9.21 B$ Lo que cuesta comprar todas las acciones de la empresa
Valor de la empresa entera 9.24 B$ Valor en bolsa más la deuda y menos la caja: lo que costaria comprarla y saldar deudas

Valoración

Veces beneficio esperado 31.66x Lo mismo, pero con el beneficio que los analistas esperan el año que viene
Veces beneficio operativo (EV/EBITDA) 51.21x Cuántas veces el beneficio operativo anual paga el mercado por la empresa entera
Veces caja libre (EV/FCF) 67.22x Lo mismo, pero contra el dinero que la empresa genera de verdad

Negocio

Crecimiento de ingresos 31.9%
Crecimiento medio anual de ingresos 177.0% Media de varios años: filtra el ruido de un solo trimestre
Margen bruto 94.2% De cada 100 dolares vendidos, lo que queda tras el coste directo del producto
Margen operativo 46.1% Lo que queda de cada 100 dolares vendidos tras todos los gastos del negocio
Caja libre generada (12 meses) 137.49 M$ Dinero que sobra tras pagar gastos e inversiones. En negativo, la empresa quema caja
Cuánto beneficio operativo se convierte en caja 0.76x Cerca de 1 significa que el beneficio contable acaba siendo dinero real

Deuda

Caja disponible 823.40 M$
Deuda total 9.11 M$
Caja neta 814.29 M$ Caja menos deuda. En positivo, la empresa tiene más dinero que deudas
Años de beneficio operativo para pagar la deuda -4.51x Por encima de 3 suele considerarse una deuda exigente
Deuda sobre fondos propios 0.7% Cuánta deuda usa por cada 100 dolares de capital de los accionistas

Accionistas

Acciones emitidas 29,479,756
Acciones que cotizan libremente 23,420,192 Cuanto menor sea, más bruscos suelen ser los movimientos de precio
Parte en manos de directivos 11.0% Si los que dirigen la empresa tienen mucho invertido, se juegan lo mismo que tu
Apuestas bajistas sobre el free float 19.5% Porcentaje de acciones prestadas para apostar a la baja

Why some numbers are coloured and others stay grey

Colour repeats what the sign already says, at three intensities depending on how far the value is from zero. It is never the only signal.

  • light
  • medium
  • strong
  • light
  • medium
  • strong
  • Price change: light up to 2%, medium up to 10%, strong above that.
  • Margins and growth: light up to 10%, medium up to 35%, strong above that.

Everything whose sign is not good or bad on its own stays grey: valuation (a low P/E can be a bargain or a trap, and almost every company here has just fallen), debt, size, insider ownership and short interest. Those are shown as-is, without the site taking a view.

Analysis of the drop

The drop in the stock price appears to be an overreaction to a mixed quarterly report: according to press reports, the company reported earnings per share that beat the consensus, but some reports indicate revenue fell short of expectations; the balance sheet shows significant net cash and positive cash flow, so the actual impact on solvency and business operations appears limited.

Catalyst

Release of second-quarter 2026 results and SEC filings (8-K and 10-Q) on August 3, 2026; the press reports mixed headlines: earnings per share were higher, but revenue fell short of some forecasts. | Next month

Risks

  • The market may maintain the penalty if the company confirms that the decline in revenue is a sustained trend.
  • The stock has a high percentage of short positions relative to its float (19.47%), which increases volatility and the risk of sharp price movements.
  • A relatively high valuation based on various multiples (for example, a high enterprise-to-free-cash-flow ratio), which means that a correction due to growth revisions affects the price.
  • The 8-K and 10-Q filings released on the same day require careful reading; adverse information in those documents could exacerbate the decline.

What would invalidate this analysis

  • In its upcoming quarterly report, the company announced a downward revision to its annual guidance, and the revised figure implies an expected revenue decline of more than 10% compared to the previous guidance.
  • In the coming quarter, reported revenue is expected to fall by more than 15% year-over-year, and management acknowledges a loss of commercial momentum in its main market.
  • The company announces a need for additional capital (through a stock offering or debt issuance) exceeding 10% of its current market value.

Development spotted after the drop

Krystal Biotech Inc (KRYS) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: VYJUVEK Sales Surge 24% as ... · 3 August 2026

We don't judge whether it's good or bad news: compare it against the real return since detection in the table below.

Tracking

Tracking ended 30 days after detection (Radar Caídas policy): the last recorded data point is the 1-month one, it is not updated further.

Horizon Date Price Return Source
Current 2026-09-06 12:00:07.851637 358.24 14.61% yahoo
24h 2026-08-04 21:00:02.210923 324.77 3.90% yahoo
48h 2026-08-05 21:00:01.919765 325.78 4.23% yahoo
1 week 2026-08-10 21:00:02.641868 331.59 6.09% yahoo
1 month 2026-09-02 21:00:04.733711 369.23 18.13% yahoo

Keep researching

Daily report for August 3, 2026