Price history
1-year price history
The chart uses daily closes adjusted by the available provider. There may be delays, gaps or differences versus the official source.
Sources
Links you can open and check yourself, most reliable first. Internal data-provider fetches are not listed here.
- Formulario 8-K: hecho relevante comunicado a la SEC | sec | 2026-08-03T00:00:00
- Formulario 10-Q: cuentas del trimestre | sec | 2026-08-03T00:00:00
- Formulario 4: compraventa de acciones por un directivo | sec | 2026-06-26T00:00:00
- Formulario 144: aviso de venta de acciones de un directivo | sec | 2026-06-25T00:00:00
- earnings event | sec_regulator | 2026-08-03T00:00:00
Company
- Sector Healthcare · Biotechnology
- Website https://www.krystalbio.com
Why this company shows up
What happened
The stock fell 14.8% and the most likely cause is this: Publicación de resultados del segundo trimestre de 2026 y presentaciones en SEC (8‑K y 10‑Q) el 3 de agosto de 2026; la prensa recoge titulares mixtos: beneficio por acción superior pero ingresos por debajo de algunas previsiones. dated 3 August 2026.
Why we found it interesting
- Likely: there is recent news consistent with the drop. There is a company event in the last 48 hours, but we could not place it before the drop began precisely enough to confirm it. The sources reviewed are at the bottom of this page.
- We could not measure the overshoot, because there is no public figure for this catalyst's real damage.
- Out of our 10 checks, 4 come out clearly in favour.
- Final score: 54 out of 100.
What could go wrong
- The market may maintain the penalty if the company confirms that the decline in revenue is a sustained trend.
- The stock has a high percentage of short positions relative to its float (19.47%), which increases volatility and the risk of sharp price movements.
- A relatively high valuation based on various multiples (for example, a high enterprise-to-free-cash-flow ratio), which means that a correction due to growth revisions affects the price.
- The 8-K and 10-Q filings released on the same day require careful reading; adverse information in those documents could exacerbate the decline.
What would make us drop it
- In its upcoming quarterly report, the company announced a downward revision to its annual guidance, and the revised figure implies an expected revenue decline of more than 10% compared to the previous guidance.
- In the coming quarter, reported revenue is expected to fall by more than 15% year-over-year, and management acknowledges a loss of commercial momentum in its main market.
- The company announces a need for additional capital (through a stock offering or debt issuance) exceeding 10% of its current market value.
What the confidence percentage means
This 70% is the confidence the model states about its own analysis after reviewing the sources.
Verified data: 7 of 10 checks have real data.
Professional thesis validation
1. What is the market pricing in
The market appears to be pricing in the risk of a slowdown in revenue growth following the August 3, 2026, report. The reaction centers on headlines that combine reported earnings per share above consensus with signs of revenue falling short of some forecasts, which has triggered a price drop of nearly 15% in 48 hours.
2. Is it justified
! Partly justified
The ~14.8% drop over 48 hours coincides with headlines citing weaker revenue, which is cause for some concern. However, the objective data in the report show a solid balance sheet: net cash of 814.3 MUSD and positive free cash flow of 137.5 MUSD (reported figures), in addition to a majority of analysts with a buy recommendation (9 buy, 1 hold). In other words, while there are reasons to penalize the weak revenue, the company’s financial health limits the risk of immediate structural damage.
3. Overreaction gap
The sources do not provide a clear figure quantifying the direct cost of the catalyst on the company’s value (e.g., a fine or one-time charge). Therefore, the quantifiable impact is considered undeterminable based on the data provided (0%), and the gap is the actual decline of 14.82 percentage points, which indicates a moderate overreaction according to the internal method.
4. Probability scenarios
Bull case
Probability: 20%
Management clarifies during the call or in a statement that the decline in revenue was due to temporary timing factors and confirms or raises its operating forecasts for the rest of the year; analysts maintain or raise their estimates.
Partial to full recovery of the price within 1–4 weeks; estimated recovery of 40%–70% of the decline.
Base case
Probability: 60%
The company releases additional information explaining that the dip was a one-time occurrence (e.g., sales timing or accounting effects), maintains its cost structure, and demonstrates stable cash generation in subsequent reports.
Gradual recovery over 2–8 weeks; partial recovery of 30%–50% of the loss.
Bear case
Probability: 20%
Either the next quarterly report will confirm that the revenue slowdown is persistent, or the company will announce that it needs significant capital.
The stock remains depressed and may fall further; recovery is likely to be delayed or nonexistent in the short term.
5. What would fully invalidate the thesis
- The company issues a formal statement revising its guidance downward, and the revised figure implies an expected decline in annual revenue of more than 10%.
- In its upcoming quarterly report, reported revenue is down more than 15% year-over-year, and management cites a loss of commercial momentum in the key market.
- The company announces that it needs external financing in an amount exceeding 10% of its current market capitalization.
6. Recovery catalysts
-
Direct clarification from management during the earnings call regarding the causes of the dip in revenue
Probability: Sign Up. Horizon: 0–7 days. Expected impact: Immediate reduction in uncertainty and partial recovery of the price (20%–50% of the decline).
-
Filing of a 10-Q/8-K with details showing that the effect was due to timing or nonrecurring items
Probability: Media. Horizon: 0–14 days. Expected impact: Reassessment by analysts and a possible gradual return to previous levels if there are no recurring effects.
-
Analysts confirm that the estimates do not require a material reduction
Probability: Media. Horizon: 7–30 days. Expected impact: Institutional support and price stabilization.
7. Historical comparison
No verifiable comparable cases were saved for this page.
8. Thesis confidence level
60/100
Moderate confidence based on a strong net cash position (~814 MUSD) and reported positive cash flow, along with a majority “buy” recommendation from analysts. Uncertainty due to a lack of specific figures regarding the impact on revenue from public sources.
9. Final verdict
Yes, but small position.
The decline appears to be an overreaction to mixed earnings signals, and the balance sheet is solid; we suggest entering the market with a small position until management provides further clarification in the coming days.
Where the score comes from
The score is computed by Python code from objective data, not by the AI model, and it does not change after the qualitative research.
Fixable problem
12.5 / 25
How much of the problem behind the drop looks fixable
Company strength
20.0 / 20
Revenue, margins, cash and debt before the drop
Overreaction size
0.0 / 15
How much it fell beyond the estimated real damage
Company response
0.0 / 15
Whether management responded publicly after the drop
Chart support
5.0 / 10
Whether the price holds above its 50-day average
Institutional money
0.0 / 10
Large-fund buying: no reliably up-to-date source exists
Bonus points
+17.0
Insider buying, capitulation volume, analysts keeping their rating
Penalty
-0.0
Deteriorating sector and negative signals detected
out of 100
54.5
Indicators
Calculated 2026-08-03T20:30:01.862318Values used by this framework's Python scoring engine at detection time. Only indicators the data source could confirm are shown.
Precio
Variación en 1 día
-8.37%
Variación en 5 días
-11.16%
Variación en 1 mes
-16.66%
Variación en 3 meses
+17.49%
Acciones negociadas ese día
1,171,170
Volumen medio de 10 días
836,990
Sirve para comparar: si el volumen del día lo dispara, algo ha pasado
Tamaño
Valor en bolsa
9.21 B$
Lo que cuesta comprar todas las acciones de la empresa
Valor de la empresa entera
9.24 B$
Valor en bolsa más la deuda y menos la caja: lo que costaria comprarla y saldar deudas
Valoración
Veces beneficio esperado
31.66x
Lo mismo, pero con el beneficio que los analistas esperan el año que viene
Veces beneficio operativo (EV/EBITDA)
51.21x
Cuántas veces el beneficio operativo anual paga el mercado por la empresa entera
Veces caja libre (EV/FCF)
67.22x
Lo mismo, pero contra el dinero que la empresa genera de verdad
Negocio
Crecimiento de ingresos
31.9%
Crecimiento medio anual de ingresos
177.0%
Media de varios años: filtra el ruido de un solo trimestre
Margen bruto
94.2%
De cada 100 dolares vendidos, lo que queda tras el coste directo del producto
Margen operativo
46.1%
Lo que queda de cada 100 dolares vendidos tras todos los gastos del negocio
Caja libre generada (12 meses)
137.49 M$
Dinero que sobra tras pagar gastos e inversiones. En negativo, la empresa quema caja
Cuánto beneficio operativo se convierte en caja
0.76x
Cerca de 1 significa que el beneficio contable acaba siendo dinero real
Deuda
Caja disponible
823.40 M$
Deuda total
9.11 M$
Caja neta
814.29 M$
Caja menos deuda. En positivo, la empresa tiene más dinero que deudas
Años de beneficio operativo para pagar la deuda
-4.51x
Por encima de 3 suele considerarse una deuda exigente
Deuda sobre fondos propios
0.7%
Cuánta deuda usa por cada 100 dolares de capital de los accionistas
Accionistas
Acciones emitidas
29,479,756
Acciones que cotizan libremente
23,420,192
Cuanto menor sea, más bruscos suelen ser los movimientos de precio
Parte en manos de directivos
11.0%
Si los que dirigen la empresa tienen mucho invertido, se juegan lo mismo que tu
Apuestas bajistas sobre el free float
19.5%
Porcentaje de acciones prestadas para apostar a la baja
Why some numbers are coloured and others stay grey
Colour repeats what the sign already says, at three intensities depending on how far the value is from zero. It is never the only signal.
- light
- medium
- strong
- light
- medium
- strong
- Price change: light up to 2%, medium up to 10%, strong above that.
- Margins and growth: light up to 10%, medium up to 35%, strong above that.
Everything whose sign is not good or bad on its own stays grey: valuation (a low P/E can be a bargain or a trap, and almost every company here has just fallen), debt, size, insider ownership and short interest. Those are shown as-is, without the site taking a view.
Technical detail
Thesis
The drop in the stock price appears to be an overreaction to a mixed quarterly report: according to press reports, the company reported earnings per share that beat the consensus, but some reports indicate revenue fell short of expectations; the balance sheet shows significant net cash and positive cash flow, so the actual impact on solvency and business operations appears limited.
Catalyst
Release of second-quarter 2026 results and SEC filings (8-K and 10-Q) on August 3, 2026; the press reports mixed headlines: earnings per share were higher, but revenue fell short of some forecasts. | Next month
Risks
- The market may maintain the penalty if the company confirms that the decline in revenue is a sustained trend.
- The stock has a high percentage of short positions relative to its float (19.47%), which increases volatility and the risk of sharp price movements.
- A relatively high valuation based on various multiples (for example, a high enterprise-to-free-cash-flow ratio), which means that a correction due to growth revisions affects the price.
- The 8-K and 10-Q filings released on the same day require careful reading; adverse information in those documents could exacerbate the decline.
Invalidation
- In its upcoming quarterly report, the company announced a downward revision to its annual guidance, and the revised figure implies an expected revenue decline of more than 10% compared to the previous guidance.
- In the coming quarter, reported revenue is expected to fall by more than 15% year-over-year, and management acknowledges a loss of commercial momentum in its main market.
- The company announces a need for additional capital (through a stock offering or debt issuance) exceeding 10% of its current market value.
Tracking
| Horizon | Date | Price | Return | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 2026-08-04 01:00:02.815380 | 312.57 | 0.00% | yahoo |