Price history
1-year price history
The chart uses daily closes adjusted by the available provider. There may be delays, gaps or differences versus the official source.
Sources
Links you can open and check yourself, most reliable first. Internal data-provider fetches are not listed here.
- Formulario 4: compraventa de acciones por un directivo | sec | 2026-08-05T00:00:00
- Formulario 144: aviso de venta de acciones de un directivo | sec | 2026-08-05T00:00:00
- Formulario 10-Q: cuentas del trimestre | sec | 2026-08-05T00:00:00
- Formulario 8-K: hecho relevante comunicado a la SEC | sec | 2026-08-05T00:00:00
- filing event | sec_regulator | 2026-08-05T00:00:00
Company
- Sector Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
- Website https://www.billiontoone.com
Why this company shows up
What happened
The stock fell 35.6% and the most likely cause is this: Official filing with the SEC dated 5 August 2026.
Why we found it interesting
- Confirmed: we know which news caused the drop. The news was published before the price started falling, so the timing lines up.
- We could not measure the overshoot, because there is no public figure for this catalyst's real damage.
- Out of our 10 checks, 5 come out clearly in favour.
- Final score: 51 out of 100.
What could go wrong
- Multiple Form 144s (notices of sale) were filed between August 3 and 5, which may increase the supply of shares in the short term.
- The valuation indicated by the evidence is high: estimated forward P/E ratio of 130.93 based on available data.
- Trading volume during the session in which the price fell was high (3,735,778 shares), which may indicate continued selling pressure in the coming days.
What would make us drop it
- The company announces in an official filing within 0–30 days a downward revision of its annual forecasts (the forecasts published by the company) compared to the previous announcement.
- The 8-K or 10-Q filed on August 5, 2026, discloses a material charge or undisclosed financial contingency that significantly reduces reported net cash.
- The SEC announces a formal investigation into accounting or business practices related to recent announcements.
What the confidence percentage means
This 80% is the confidence the model states about its own analysis after reviewing the sources.
Verified data: 7 of 10 checks have real data.
Professional thesis validation
1. What is the market pricing in
The market is pricing in an immediate and significant decline stemming from the earnings call and the sales activity reported on Form 144. The stock fell ~38.9% during the August 6 trading session and -35.6% over 48 hours, indicating that investors are reacting to the news with a short-term decline in value that implies a lasting impact on the business.
2. Is it justified
!! Clearly exaggerated
A 38.89% drop in price in one day despite the absence of any financial charge or contract loss disclosed in the filings dated August 5, 2026. Objective data: reported revenue up 64% (according to call summaries), total reported cash of $537,450k and net cash of $393,263k, positive operating cash flow of $37.4M, and positive free cash flow based on reported data. There is no evidence of a fine, bankruptcy, or loss of a major client; therefore, the magnitude of the decline is not supported by a quantified economic impact in the available official documents.
3. Overreaction gap
The quantifiable direct economic impact of the information disclosed in recent earnings reports and filings is estimated to be low (with no reported monetary charges or loss of contracts), so the drop of ~39 percentage points far exceeds that estimated impact, indicating a strong overreaction.
4. Probability scenarios
Bull case
Probability: 25%
Management confirms in official communications (filings or press releases) that it is maintaining or improving the forecasts published by the company and explains the trading activity of insiders; furthermore, net buying by institutional investors or executives is observed in the days that follow.
Partial to full recovery from the decline; narrowing of the gap and recovery of between 50% and 100% of the intraday loss within 1–3 weeks.
Base case
Probability: 60%
There are no additional charges or downward revisions to forecasts over the next 1–4 weeks; the company releases details clarifying the transaction, and the reported sales are absorbed by the market.
A gradual, partial recovery (30%–60% of the decline) over 2–6 weeks as panic subsides and valuations are reassessed.
Bear case
Probability: 15%
Additional negative information emerges in filings (charges, regulatory investigations, or downward revisions to forecasts), or selling pressure from Form 144 filings results in a sustained increase in supply.
A sustained decline or consolidation at low prices; limited recovery and the risk of further losses in the coming weeks.
5. What would fully invalidate the thesis
- Official filings show a reduction in the forecasts the company will publish over the next 30 days.
- An 8-K or 10-Q filing discloses a material charge or financial contingency that had not been previously disclosed.
- The SEC announces a formal investigation into accounting or business practices related to recent announcements.
6. Recovery catalysts
-
Public confirmation of the guidance that maintains or clarifies the published forecasts
Probability: Sign Up. Horizon: 1–4 weeks. Expected impact: Up: It could reverse much of the decline if the clarification reassures the market.
-
Net public purchases by executives or institutional purchases confirmed in subsequent filings (SEC Form 4)
Probability: Media. Horizon: 1–4 weeks. Expected impact: Medium-high: a sign of internal strength and price support.
-
Leading analysts maintain or reiterate their "buy" recommendations and publish explanatory notes
Probability: Media. Horizon: 1–3 weeks. Expected impact: Market: helps absorb selling pressure and bring valuations back to normal.
7. Historical comparison
No verifiable comparable cases were saved for this page.
8. Thesis confidence level
55/100
Moderate confidence: The evidence shows solid operational fundamentals and positive net cash, but there are uncertainties related to Form 144 activity and high valuation; furthermore, the preliminary internal score is ~50.8, and additional confirmation from management is required.
9. Final verdict
Yes, but small position.
The decline seems exaggerated given the available official documents; buying a small position is reasonable for investors willing to accept volatility. This requires active monitoring of filings and statements over the next two weeks.
Where the score comes from
The score is computed by Python code from objective data, not by the AI model, and it does not change after the qualitative research.
Fixable problem
13.8 / 25
How much of the problem behind the drop looks fixable
Company strength
20.0 / 20
Revenue, margins, cash and debt before the drop
Overreaction size
0.0 / 15
How much it fell beyond the estimated real damage
Company response
0.0 / 15
Whether management responded publicly after the drop
Chart support
0.0 / 10
Whether the price holds above its 50-day average
Institutional money
0.0 / 10
Large-fund buying: no reliably up-to-date source exists
Bonus points
+17.0
Insider buying, capitulation volume, analysts keeping their rating
Penalty
-0.0
Deteriorating sector and negative signals detected
out of 100
50.8
Indicators
Calculated 2026-08-06T20:30:02.278387Values used by this framework's Python scoring engine at detection time. Only indicators the data source could confirm are shown.
Precio
Variación en 1 día
-38.89%
Variación en 5 días
-34.34%
Variación en 1 mes
-24.00%
Variación en 3 meses
+12.59%
Acciones negociadas ese día
3,735,778
Volumen medio de 10 días
582,390
Sirve para comparar: si el volumen del día lo dispara, algo ha pasado
Tamaño
Valor en bolsa
4.22 B$
Lo que cuesta comprar todas las acciones de la empresa
Valor de la empresa entera
6.50 B$
Valor en bolsa más la deuda y menos la caja: lo que costaria comprarla y saldar deudas
Valoración
Veces beneficio esperado
130.93x
Lo mismo, pero con el beneficio que los analistas esperan el año que viene
Veces beneficio operativo (EV/EBITDA)
151.18x
Cuántas veces el beneficio operativo anual paga el mercado por la empresa entera
Veces caja libre (EV/FCF)
389.09x
Lo mismo, pero contra el dinero que la empresa genera de verdad
Negocio
Crecimiento de ingresos
83.8%
Margen bruto
70.4%
De cada 100 dolares vendidos, lo que queda tras el coste directo del producto
Margen operativo
16.5%
Lo que queda de cada 100 dolares vendidos tras todos los gastos del negocio
Caja libre generada (12 meses)
16.72 M$
Dinero que sobra tras pagar gastos e inversiones. En negativo, la empresa quema caja
Cuánto beneficio operativo se convierte en caja
0.39x
Cerca de 1 significa que el beneficio contable acaba siendo dinero real
Deuda
Caja disponible
537.45 M$
Deuda total
144.19 M$
Caja neta
393.26 M$
Caja menos deuda. En positivo, la empresa tiene más dinero que deudas
Años de beneficio operativo para pagar la deuda
-9.14x
Por encima de 3 suele considerarse una deuda exigente
Deuda sobre fondos propios
28.5%
Cuánta deuda usa por cada 100 dolares de capital de los accionistas
Accionistas
Acciones emitidas
41,442,834
Acciones que cotizan libremente
24,094,734
Cuanto menor sea, más bruscos suelen ser los movimientos de precio
Parte en manos de directivos
38.1%
Si los que dirigen la empresa tienen mucho invertido, se juegan lo mismo que tu
Apuestas bajistas sobre el free float
9.6%
Porcentaje de acciones prestadas para apostar a la baja
Why some numbers are coloured and others stay grey
Colour repeats what the sign already says, at three intensities depending on how far the value is from zero. It is never the only signal.
- light
- medium
- strong
- light
- medium
- strong
- Price change: light up to 2%, medium up to 10%, strong above that.
- Margins and growth: light up to 10%, medium up to 35%, strong above that.
Everything whose sign is not good or bad on its own stays grey: valuation (a low P/E can be a bargain or a trap, and almost every company here has just fallen), debt, size, insider ownership and short interest. Those are shown as-is, without the site taking a view.
Technical detail
Thesis
The ~38% drop following the earnings release and the earnings call on August 5 appears to be an overreaction by the market: the company reported 64% revenue growth and shows a substantial positive net cash balance according to its financial statements, with no quantified charges in the filings dated August 5, 2026.
Catalyst
Release of second-quarter 2026 results and earnings call on August 5, 2026, followed by media coverage that questioned the valuation and sales activity/sales orders (Form 144) reported in the filings from August 3–5. | Next month
Risks
- Multiple Form 144s (notices of sale) were filed between August 3 and 5, which may increase the supply of shares in the short term.
- The valuation indicated by the evidence is high: estimated forward P/E ratio of 130.93 based on available data.
- Trading volume during the session in which the price fell was high (3,735,778 shares), which may indicate continued selling pressure in the coming days.
Invalidation
- The company announces in an official filing within 0–30 days a downward revision of its annual forecasts (the forecasts published by the company) compared to the previous announcement.
- The 8-K or 10-Q filed on August 5, 2026, discloses a material charge or undisclosed financial contingency that significantly reduces reported net cash.
- The SEC announces a formal investigation into accounting or business practices related to recent announcements.
Tracking
| Horizon | Date | Price | Return | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 2026-08-06 22:00:02.333238 | 91.65 | 0.00% | yahoo |