Price history
1-year price history
The chart uses daily closes adjusted by the available provider. There may be delays, gaps or differences versus the official source.
Sources
Links you can open and check yourself, most reliable first. Internal data-provider fetches are not listed here.
- Formulario 10-Q: cuentas del trimestre | sec | 2026-08-05T00:00:00
- Formulario 4: compraventa de acciones por un directivo | sec | 2026-08-04T00:00:00
- SEC 3 | sec | 2026-08-04T00:00:00
- Formulario 8-K: hecho relevante comunicado a la SEC | sec | 2026-08-04T00:00:00
- SEC SCHEDULE 13G | sec | 2026-07-31T00:00:00
Company
- Sector Technology · Software - Infrastructure
- Website https://www.teradata.com
Why this company shows up
What happened
The stock fell 18.3% and the most likely cause is this: Quarterly results dated 4 August 2026.
Why we found it interesting
- Confirmed: we know which news caused the drop. The news was published before the price started falling, so the timing lines up.
- We estimate it overshot: it fell about 12.1 points more than the real damage we were able to quantify would justify.
- Out of our 10 checks, 6 come out clearly in favour.
- Final score: 56 out of 100.
What could go wrong
- Management could revise its own annual forecasts downward by more than 10% in the coming quarter, which would justify a further decline.
- The stock is trading 19.08% below its 50-day moving average, according to the technical data provided.
- The percentage of short positions relative to the free float is high (25.66%), which may increase volatility.
- If the company discloses adverse information in an additional 8-K (for example, contractual issues), the decline could continue.
What would make us drop it
- The company will announce a downward revision of its own annual forecasts of more than 10% in its next official statement.
- A subsequent 8-K filing discloses a material issue (such as the loss of a key contract or weakness in recurring revenue) confirmed by management.
- Net cash will fall below zero (no longer having net cash) according to the next quarterly report.
- Free cash flow for the next quarter is negative and greater in magnitude than the $335,375,008 reported for the current period.
What the confidence percentage means
This 85% is the confidence the model states about its own analysis after reviewing the sources.
Verified data: 8 of 10 checks have real data.
Professional thesis validation
1. What is the market pricing in
The market appears to be pricing in a scenario of sustained weakness in the company’s future outlook following the release of its earnings (a -23.73% drop in one day). However, the objective data show: positive operating profit (operating margin of 19.14%), total cash of 816,000,000 USD and net cash of 263,000,000 USD, positive free cash flow of 335,375,008 USD, and news that the quarter’s results exceeded estimates. The 90-day consensus earnings revision stands at -6.2%, much lower than the price decline.
2. Is it justified
!! Clearly exaggerated
The stock fell 23.73% in a single trading session following a -6.2% downward revision to the 90-day consensus estimate; the company reported positive net cash (USD 263M) and positive free cash flow (USD 335M) for the reporting period. In addition, there is evidence of buying by executives (net_shares_purchased_pct 903.8). These data indicate that the market is punishing the stock more than the publicly reported operating figures warrant.
3. Overreaction gap
The decline (23.73%) exceeds the consensus revision (-6.2%) by 17.53 percentage points, suggesting a clear overreaction based on the framework’s minimum threshold of 8 points.
4. Probability scenarios
Bull case
Probability: 25%
Management confirms that the annual forecasts are not being revised downward (or remain within the previous range) and that the coming quarters show signs of operational improvement; executives continue to buy back shares.
Substantial price recovery: +50% from the low point of the decline within 2–6 weeks.
Base case
Probability: 55%
The company clarifies that the quarter was affected by one-time factors; consensus estimates are being revised downward, but there are no major downward revisions from the company itself; fundamentals (cash and cash flow) remain stable.
Partial price recovery: +30–45% in 2–8 weeks.
Bear case
Probability: 20%
A significant downward revision to the company's own forecasts (>10%) is confirmed, or an 8-K is filed containing material negative information regarding recurring revenue.
Further decline or stabilization of the price at low levels; additional loss of up to 30% from the low.
5. What would fully invalidate the thesis
- The company will announce a downward revision of more than 10% to its own annual forecasts in its next official statement.
- A subsequent 8-K filing reveals the loss of a contract representing more than 20% of its revenue.
- Net cash flow reported for the following quarter falls below 0 USD.
6. Recovery catalysts
-
Public Statement by Management Regarding Forecasts (Press Release or 8-K)
Probability: Sign Up. Horizon: 0–30 days. Expected impact: High: It could eliminate uncertainty and lead to a rapid recovery if forecasts are not revised downward.
-
Quarterly earnings results showing recurring revenue growth and margin
Probability: Media. Horizon: 31–90 days. Expected impact: Medium-High: This would confirm that the quarter was on track and would support a partial or full recovery.
-
Continued purchases by executives or announcement of a share buyback
Probability: Media. Horizon: 0–90 days. Expected impact: Measure: It would boost market confidence and reduce selling pressure.
7. Historical comparison
No verifiable comparable cases were saved for this page.
8. Thesis confidence level
60/100
There are objective factors in its favor (quarterly earnings above estimates, net cash, positive free cash flow, executive share purchases), and the consensus revision is moderate (-6.2%), but the market’s reaction was very strong, and technical indicators show a lack of support; moderate confidence.
9. Final verdict
Yes, but small position.
There are signs of an overreaction and positive operational fundamentals; a small position is recommended for investors who can tolerate volatility while awaiting clarification on the direction of the stock. Maintain stop-loss orders and monitor upcoming 8-K filings and press releases.
Where the score comes from
The score is computed by Python code from objective data, not by the AI model, and it does not change after the qualitative research.
Fixable problem
16.2 / 25
How much of the problem behind the drop looks fixable
Company strength
20.0 / 20
Revenue, margins, cash and debt before the drop
Overreaction size
4.5 / 15
How much it fell beyond the estimated real damage
Company response
0.0 / 15
Whether management responded publicly after the drop
Chart support
0.0 / 10
Whether the price holds above its 50-day average
Institutional money
0.0 / 10
Large-fund buying: no reliably up-to-date source exists
Bonus points
+15.0
Insider buying, capitulation volume, analysts keeping their rating
Penalty
-0.0
Deteriorating sector and negative signals detected
out of 100
55.8
Indicators
Calculated 2026-08-05T20:30:02.636191Values used by this framework's Python scoring engine at detection time. Only indicators the data source could confirm are shown.
Precio
Variación en 1 día
-23.73%
Variación en 5 días
-14.37%
Variación en 1 mes
-28.06%
Variación en 3 meses
-12.80%
Acciones negociadas ese día
9,837,921
Volumen medio de 10 días
2,958,980
Sirve para comparar: si el volumen del día lo dispara, algo ha pasado
Tamaño
Valor en bolsa
2.47 B$
Lo que cuesta comprar todas las acciones de la empresa
Valor de la empresa entera
2.76 B$
Valor en bolsa más la deuda y menos la caja: lo que costaria comprarla y saldar deudas
Valoración
Veces beneficio esperado
9.08x
Lo mismo, pero con el beneficio que los analistas esperan el año que viene
Veces beneficio operativo (EV/EBITDA)
8.48x
Cuántas veces el beneficio operativo anual paga el mercado por la empresa entera
Veces caja libre (EV/FCF)
8.22x
Lo mismo, pero contra el dinero que la empresa genera de verdad
PER ajustado al crecimiento (PEG)
6.00x
Un PER alto puede estar justificado si la empresa crece rápido. Por debajo de 1 suele verse como barato
Negocio
Crecimiento de ingresos
6.2%
Crecimiento medio anual de ingresos
-2.5%
Media de varios años: filtra el ruido de un solo trimestre
Margen bruto
60.7%
De cada 100 dolares vendidos, lo que queda tras el coste directo del producto
Margen operativo
19.1%
Lo que queda de cada 100 dolares vendidos tras todos los gastos del negocio
Caja libre generada (12 meses)
335.38 M$
Dinero que sobra tras pagar gastos e inversiones. En negativo, la empresa quema caja
Cuánto beneficio operativo se convierte en caja
1.03x
Cerca de 1 significa que el beneficio contable acaba siendo dinero real
Deuda
Caja disponible
816.00 M$
Deuda total
553.00 M$
Caja neta
263.00 M$
Caja menos deuda. En positivo, la empresa tiene más dinero que deudas
Años de beneficio operativo para pagar la deuda
-0.81x
Por encima de 3 suele considerarse una deuda exigente
Deuda sobre fondos propios
99.3%
Cuánta deuda usa por cada 100 dolares de capital de los accionistas
Accionistas
Acciones emitidas
94,100,000
Acciones que cotizan libremente
86,315,107
Cuanto menor sea, más bruscos suelen ser los movimientos de precio
Parte en manos de directivos
1.0%
Si los que dirigen la empresa tienen mucho invertido, se juegan lo mismo que tu
Apuestas bajistas sobre el free float
25.7%
Porcentaje de acciones prestadas para apostar a la baja
Why some numbers are coloured and others stay grey
Colour repeats what the sign already says, at three intensities depending on how far the value is from zero. It is never the only signal.
- light
- medium
- strong
- light
- medium
- strong
- Price change: light up to 2%, medium up to 10%, strong above that.
- Margins and growth: light up to 10%, medium up to 35%, strong above that.
Everything whose sign is not good or bad on its own stays grey: valuation (a low P/E can be a bargain or a trap, and almost every company here has just fallen), debt, size, insider ownership and short interest. Those are shown as-is, without the site taking a view.
Technical detail
Thesis
The decline appears to be an overreaction: Teradata reported second-quarter results that beat estimates and maintains a positive net cash position, while the consensus revision was moderate (-6.2%) and there were purchases by executives; the market is punishing the company more than is justified by its cautious outlook.
Catalyst
Second-quarter earnings were reported between August 3 and 5, 2026 (various 8-K and 10-Q filings), and press coverage highlighted that, although operating income improved, the company’s forward-looking guidance remained cautious. This triggered a sharp decline in the stock price during the trading session on August 5. | Next month
Risks
- Management could revise its own annual forecasts downward by more than 10% in the coming quarter, which would justify a further decline.
- The stock is trading 19.08% below its 50-day moving average, according to the technical data provided.
- The percentage of short positions relative to the free float is high (25.66%), which may increase volatility.
- If the company discloses adverse information in an additional 8-K (for example, contractual issues), the decline could continue.
Invalidation
- The company will announce a downward revision of its own annual forecasts of more than 10% in its next official statement.
- A subsequent 8-K filing discloses a material issue (such as the loss of a key contract or weakness in recurring revenue) confirmed by management.
- Net cash will fall below zero (no longer having net cash) according to the next quarterly report.
- Free cash flow for the next quarter is negative and greater in magnitude than the $335,375,008 reported for the current period.
Tracking
| Horizon | Date | Price | Return | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 2026-08-05 22:00:02.081899 | 26.23 | 0.00% | yahoo |